Big fire in California

[smokechase II]

If that big one gets any where near Big Bear.....

Think about how many live trees are going to be toast, (homes for people too), because we didn't clean up the beetle killed pine down south over the last 3-4 years.

The photos below show a before and after from a campground in Oregon. Please note that this was just from this years clean-up. Many others trees have been removed from this spot in the recent past.

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

Yep, this fire totally exploded a couple of days ago when it was just a few hundred acres. It grew to close to 40,000 acres in just 36 hours.

It is very close to getting into forest areas affected by bark beatles...we are hanging on here and hoping for the best.

They have been doing a lot of fuels reduction work since last summer but there is still a lot to go..

 

[smokechase II]

estimate

Larry Cable Person:
If you were to take an area that is two miles out from the perimeter of the lake.
What percentage would you guess has been effectively fuels treated?

What is your home situation?

All the Best.

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

Boy that's a tough question. Five percent maybe???

Last summer they did a lot of work along Highway 38 in the Barton Flats area, several miles from the lake. This included removal of beetle kills and reduction of ladder fuels. They have also been removing hazard trees along the evacuation routes from the valley.

Last fall they were working in the Moonridge area probably with a similar prescription.

There are TONS of kills remaining in the area from Onyx Summit down to the Millard Complex incident which is where the Sawtooth Complex incident and the Millard may join. If that happens with a wind shift coming out of the east or southeast all bets are off! That area has not burned in "recorded" history. Lots of standing dead timber and who knows what else.

In the event of fire over at Bear Mountain we can charge the snowmaking system and provide 6,000gpm at 350psi at the top of the hill and 1,050psi at the base. Not a cure all but maybe enough to make a difference. But that is only if there is 7-8 megawatts of electricity available...

Our home is roughly within 300 feet of the lake. It's just my wife and myself. If it starts to get ugly we are outta here. No sense trying to be a hero and therefore becoming an extra burden...

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

From KBHR 93.3

PUBLIC MEETING (Installment 3, 7:45pm)
The Big Bear Lake Convention Center was packed for about an hour tonight, as close to 1,000 residents turned out to hear a briefing from the Unified Fire Incident Command.

George Corley, Division Chief with San Bernardino County Fire reported on their activities at Onyx Peak, where there are 40 structures. They've been reducing hazardous fuels around propane tanks and houses and dousing them with fire retardant gel.

One of the first things brought up was the fact that there is a “very good possibility” that the two fire complexes, Sawtooth and Millard, will merge at Mission Springs. If that happens, though, they say it won't mean disaster for Big Bear, because it will mean that the general movement is toward the northeast.

Currently, the point where fire is closest to us is about 2 ½ miles east of Onyx Summit, and 6-7 miles from Lake Williams down pipes canyon. The goal is to hold it at the bottom of that canyon.

Randy Clauson of the U.S. Forest Service reported on the dozer activity behind Erwin Lake and Lake Williams. They're creating a last-stand back line, in case the fire does worse than expected. They do have back lines further down the mountain and do not expect the fires to reach the line behind these communities. Officials are acting prudently though, and planning as if the threat is much closer. Clauson pointed out that the most visible smoke is from Millard, and it makes it appear a lot closer than it actually is. All roads are open into Big Bear and tourism is not being discouraged.

Walt Chacon, the Deputy Incident Commander for the CDF says that now that the northeastern portion of Sawtooth is calming down – evacuations were lifted at noon in many of those areas – they can focus the fight on the fire's western and southern fronts.

This is the #1 incident in California, and as such, it has priority. State resources have been coming and Chacon says they're very well stocked. He says they have adequate resources and will not be requesting the assistance from any military aircraft. Also, the National weather Service is doing spot weather forecasts for incident command.

Lee Watkins reiterated what KBHR reported throughout the day: that residents in Erwin Lake and Lake William were contacted door by door and told to begin thinking about getting their valuables together. Officers conducted informational visits to those communities to prepare them for the possibility of evacuation, which has not been established, even on a voluntary basis. As Watkins put it, we're preparing for the worst but hoping for the best. If the fire does advance more than expected, it would likely only affect the east valley, and evacuations would be in phases. The trigger points established at certain topographical features allow 5-6 hours for any evacuations which would begin a Rainbow Lane, then move to Lake William and finally to Erwin Lake. Again, not even voluntary evacuations have been called for at this time. The Sheriff's Dept. has requested a 12-hour lead time for any evacuation in the worst –case scenario.

Resources include local fire agencies, County fire, the Forest Service, Cleveland National Forest, Big Bear Hot Shots and rio Bravo Hot shots.

 

[smokechase II]

info

Some sources on the net for general information on fires:

http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/sitreprt.pdf is the sit report.
Today it lists the California area first and the Sawtooth Complex first on the Cal Fires. From what I know of the world, your fire is the Number 1 priority nationally.

http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/ shows an infrared map (1 kilometer resolution) of the US.
Click on the Regional Maps tab,
Then the state area you want,
Then under "most Current Maps" , either JPEG or PDF plot formats,
Then resize the map and get a general idea of recent activity from how many red dots there are, (yellow dots mean heat over a day old). I see that most of the current heat on your fire is on its Western side.

I can come up with more web sites, national and local weather forecasts for instance. But I suspect you already have a local web site put out by the fire team. Would you post that?

Thanks.

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

The two fires merged sometime today, now roughly 70,000 acres. Town has been safe so far.

Way to go firefighters!

.

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

Here is a good report on the situation:

http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/fire/south/fwx/operations/osc-archive/sitreport.html

.

 

[smokechase II]

more info

Larry cable man:
You can try:
http://inciweb.org/state/5/
and then select either the Sawtooth or Millard Complex for specific info.
When I viewed the Sawtooth at 1430, I noticed a predicted SE wind. Which is bad. But humidity above 45% is great news.

For a more detailed fire weather forecast for Southern Cal:
http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/daily_weather/psaday.htm

For what the weather is doing right now at specific mountain locations near you:
http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=SOCC&rawsflag=2
You'll have to journey down the page and find the stations near you.
For instance - under SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CENTRAL MOUNTAINS select Fawnskin RAWS(a specific Remote Automated Weather Station).
On the menu on the left side/center/select "Click for topo map".
The topozone map below shows this RAWS site near Big Bear.
Not all fire weather RAWS are as good as this one. Good graphs etc.

Larry. Pay a lot of attention to the wind and humidity. Temperature is also important, of course. Usually wind direction/speed and lowness of humidity are the greater determinators of good/bad news for you. Be especially concerned of any nights with poor or no humidity recovery.

 

[smokechase II]

Opps.

Here is the map I forgot to post.

Sorry that the red X at the Fawnskin RAWS site didn't copy to this map.
But it is there if you follow the instructions above.

 

[smokechase II]

more RAWS help

Try:
http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/ro...g=2&radius=50&gacc=SOCC&orderby=p&fireid=5148
This lists RAWS stations in relation to the fire.
With Fawnskin 22 miles WNW of the fire. You can pick others nearby more easily.

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

DC-10 Air Tanker

Here is a link to an article about the new DC-10 tanker that made it's firefighting debut yesterday. I happened to be in the area helping some friends create a fuel break around their structures when it made it's two drops.

It was a couple of ridges away from us where it made it's drops but circled over us at least once. It is one BIG mo-fo and it was LOW!

Article about the DC-10 Air Tanker

.

 

[smokechase II]

evacuation for the future

Congrats:
Looks good.

However, you should prepare yourself for the eventuality of the Big Bear area burning catastrophically.

Maybe post an evacuation guide in a closet.

 

[slipknot]

Wasn't there a terrorist threat of setting fires to our forest land recently? How the hell do the fires start in the first place?

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

Lightning. We have had quite a few lightning caused fires just in the last few weeks. They can smoulder undetected (such as in a tree top) for several days and then really take off when the fuel has dried and the wind kicks up.

The fly recon as soon as they can after thunderstorms go through.

.

 

[458_lott]

smokechaseII,

I am and have always been mesmorized by wildland firefighting. I try to read everything I can about it. Since I was a little kid, I visited forestfire towers and still view them frequently on the internet. My question to you is, what books are good reading material. I have gotten some from visiting wildlandfire.com, but I am always looking for suggestions from wildland firefighters. I contacted my state (here in PA) forestfire people to see if I could take courses and training (I know that I am old) but I am handy with a saw (about 25 years felling) and I am in good shape and looking to retire full-time work (full-time director of a mental health agency and adjunct professor of psychology for a local college). Thought maybe I could help somewhere here in PA should we ever need it. Anyway, I would welcome any recommendations you might have concerning reading material or whatever. I really respect you guys (and gals) and the work that you do.

Michael

 

[BlueRidgeMark]

Wasn't there a terrorist threat of setting fires to our forest land recently? How the hell do the fires start in the first place?

Lightning, campfires left unattended, cigarettes thrown out windows or on the ground, and arson.

A lot of California wildfires have been arson. Sometimes kids, too.


On another note, you guys ought to visit Larry sometime. It's an interesting place. The lake is kind of in a bowl in the mountains, but as you drive out of the bowl and start down you get some fabulous views of the top of.....


THE SMOG!




Glad I'm out of it!

 

[smokechase II]

Big Bear Lake area

The Big Bear Lake area is truly fabulous.

Only problem is how crowded it gets with all those folks coming up from below.

Any freedom loving outdoor type could just love it there, except for prices and crowding.

 

[LarryTheCableGuy]

Only problem is how crowded it gets with all those folks coming up from below.

Only on some weekends and a few holidays. Honestly, the biggest problem is the number of people that come up totally unprepared to drive in the snow. The view of the smog (say from Running Springs) is really something. We can't see it from here in the Big Bear Valley!

It's positively awesome here. I'll be back in a little while. The sun will be setting over the lake in a while and that would be a good thing to watch while I barbeque.

 

[BlueRidgeMark]

The view of the smog (say from Running Springs) is really something.

Well, yeah. "Something" is one way to describe it.


Enjoy that smoke-enhanced sunset, Larry, and stay safe.