I don’t like being the armchair quarterback, but this incident seems a pretty clear error of judgment. When the bar got pinched on the other side, that should have been an easy to read signal that the tree was spring loaded—and in which direction. From the start, the sawyer should have been thinking about what forces were keeping the tree suspended off the ground—it had to be wedged some way or other. In those situations you always use caution and pay close attention to the tension and compression.
With these simulations on a screen things may be over simplified—but the situation does not look complicated. That’s my take.