Thats too many "probablys" for me, and likely alot of owners with themself or their climber, their company reputation and potential insurance claim on the line. Especially considering you've only seen the tree in a 2d pic. Kind of hard to make those proclamations without being at the base of the tree isn't it?
Or are you the guy who ends up saying..."Sorry boss, I really thought I could make it go there. But hey.....you're deductible is cheap right?"
i've had 1 insurance claim in my 9 years of climbing, on A bad bounce from blocking down a pine tree by an air conditioner. you're right, i havent seen the tree in person, i mentioned something like that in one of my posts. if you want a sure thing, get a bucket truck and a crane to take out the left side, then drop the right side. thats overkill on this tree, imo