Silver Maple near Driveway - 50/50 fall risk. 2nd opinion.

[EchoRomeoCharlie]

I would be getting rid of that tree no doubt. Really bad spot for a tree and there's no doubt where those stems are going to land.

It's not going to be cheap either...

 

[ATH]

How qualified were the folks assessing the tree?

There is a protocol that the International Society of Arboriculture (ISA) teaches and then tests individuals' ability to use that protocol. Those who have gone through that process have a recognition called Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ). Find a TRAQ arborist in your area. You should pay for an assessment. Otherwise, its a bid for work. Make what you are looking for clean before they come out.

50/50 is not an option per that protocol... Likelihood of failure is either "improbable, possible (which means more likely to not fail), probable (more likely to fail) , imminent". Based only on those pictures, I'd lean towards improbably or possible. I know...lots of "but its a huge codominate leader tree!!!! It's going to fail any day now!!!!!" But the same thing would have been said 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 15 years ago, yet here we are today looking at the same tree with the same codominate leaders. Has anything about the tree changed in that time? If so, I could easily change that thought process. That's why you need to have somebody who understands tree risk look at the tree in person. Yes, at some point the tree WILL fall down. Is that splitting in half next week? Or is that the tree living for 50 more years and slowly declining for the last 20 years of its life? I don't know. But it will come down at some point. If we remove every tree that could possibly cause damage, it would be an ugly world, so I think it worth leaving those that pose relatively lower risk...

For one last thought: about 300 people per year in the US die from tree failures. It takes about 1.5 days for that same number to die in vehicle accidents. Do you still drive a car? It is well worth looking around in both circumstances. Ask the questions about the tree...is it really a problem? If so, deal with it. Likewise, when driving, I may decide "it is too icy and people on the interstate are stupid, so I'm not driving today".

 

[dragonslayer]

Tree and stump are gone for $3400