Terrorism, Economy and War

[Menchhofer]

Is anyone out there concerned regarding our work relating to the current American situation?


In other words, will OUR work be affected this year by war, economics and terrorism?

 

[Greg]

I just wish we could get on with it so we can get this over with. Seems like war is a given at this point, but with all these inspection games and UN bs the markets continue to be unstable becasue no one knows where the end is. I think that if investors can see light at the end of the tunnel we will start to rebound out of this economic slump we are in. Not knowing makes people worry, knowing allows people to plan. I am predicting a bumpy first half of the year and a bullish 2nd half. ---don't take investment advice from me -- my IRA is down about 40% over the last 2 years.... But it's only money!

Tree work will be slow if the economy is slow. If people have stable jobs and cash in their pockets so will we.
Greg

 

[TREETX]

It will have a minimal effect. Especially when compared to the dot com bust, decline in the tech sector, and loss of faith in the market after accounting scandals.

911 was just a scapegoat for the other things.

AOL Time Warner just announced they lost 100 billion last year. Yeah, 100 billion. 30 million a day.

Heard today that KPMG is having charges filed against them.

In this economy, just hold on and be ready to strike when the iron gets hot.

.02 NATHAN

 

[NickfromWI]

Bad economy good for tree workers

If the economy goes down, people work less.

If people work less, they spend more time at home.

If people spend more time at home, they spend more time looking at and thinking about their trees.

The more time people spend looking at and thinking about their trees, the more likely they will be to call us for work.

There for, when the economy goes down, people call us, and it the tree workers that are responsible for jumpstarting the economy!!!!

(I knew my job was important!)

love
nick

 

[TREETX]

Don't think I agree 100% Nick but I do know the retail manager at one of the local high end nuseries.

He said that when the economy goes down, their sales go up for the reasons you mentioned.

 

[Newfie]

"Seems like war is a given at this point, but with all these inspection games and UN bs the markets continue to be unstable becasue no one knows where the end is."

We are just waiting on logistics and cooler weather. Within a month though, and then we can all watch the oil companies gouge us for another 25 cents a gallon.



"don't take investment advice from me -- my IRA is down about 40% over the last 2 years.... But it's only money!"

look at it as payback for the absurd gains the market made for the two years before that. I look at it this way, it ain't money until I need to use it. Thats 30 years away, with all of the ups and downs of the market to even out.

 

[murphy4trees]

No matter what the press tells us, there is a huge movement to prevent the war.. I walked with 500,000 people in DC a couple weeks ago.. The local all news radio station in Philly didn't even mention the rally and march, while they were airing a story about a new law in L.A. making it illegal to declaw cats..
Other national news organizations referred to the crowd as being in the tens of thousands... a deliberate underestimation...
And the international community is outraged by Bush's actions.
All this raises the cost of war to Bush and his sponsors. So this war is far from a given.
G W wants a regime change so he can install a puppet government to do the bidding of his oil patrons and intends to set up permanet US military bases in Iraq as there are in Saudi Arabia, Germany, Japan.. etc.. The more GW thinks the war will cost him, the more he'll try to accomplish his goals without a war.. ie. there are 150 CIA agents working on plans for assasination right now.

In any case when the phone stops ringing I refuse to lower my bids.. I either get busy calling old customers and following up on earlier bids, or cut back on hours... I do some "resting up", so when work gets real busy, I can give it 100%.
God Bless All,
Daniel

 

[Stumper]

I have never been able to find any direct correlation between the national economy and my work levels. I know that unstable conditions and poor economic numbers cause some of my potential customers to wait or reduce the work they have done-they've told me so. On the other hand, i do not know what the percentage is that go ahead because of Nick's reasons or because "I've got the money now but I might not have it in 3 months". It all gets pretty convoluted.

FWIW, As a boy I knew an old treeman who worked all through the Great Depression. A lot of people were busted and broken financially then but many who had money before the crash still had money after it. Mr. Ray had a good reputation and people with decent estates kept him working on their trees.

 

[TREETX]

Illeagal to declaw cats??? That is where I draw the line!!! Lets protest. Maybe they thought that is what everyone was marching about - I'm sure it will have the same effect either way.

500,000 you must have been busy counting all day. Still not that much compared to the 280 million people that live in this country.

The outraged international community is countries like France who stand to lose because the get money out of the current regime since they(and the Russians) set up most of the oil infrastructure that is there.

This Bush imperialism theory doesn't wash either. Ever heard of the Monroe Doctrine?? Didn't think so.

The anti-war side has some really good points but many of the people drawn to these marches detract from them. If it is about war, keep it about war but lose the SUVs = terrorism, leagalize pot, end executions, shelter the homeless, stop logging our forests, stop aids, and free love rhetoric. The cause seems to be lost in all of that stuff and that is why it is hard for me to take any of them seriously.

Am I conservative, NO!! I think someone should take Iraq out but it is not necessarily what I want my political heroes spending my money on.

As always, when the phone stops ringing, don't bid lower, take the time to regroup and even remarket yourself. If you get cheaper to stay busy you will work yourself broke with checks coming in daily.

.02

There is no government like No government!!

 

[koyaanisqatsi]

Terrorism

Terrorism against the U.S. would end in a micro-second if we simply did not interfere in the internal affairs of these other countries--they simply want our military, CIA, FBI, NSA out of their countries and we just can't figure that simple fact out. Is this the 21st version of Manifest Destiny? Do we feel the need to control everyone and everything. They fight with terrorism because they are militarily weak, just as the Jews did to create Israel and just as we did when we gave the American Indians blankets carrying the Smallpox Virus. The U. S. is a simply a terrorist state with high-tech killing equipment. The "Butcher of Washington" will pay in the end. Saddam is no threat to us--he must know that if acts he against us with WOMD which he doesn't seem to have anyway, we can annihilate him and his country. Bush got us into this--I don't see how we can back down and say it was all a mistake, even though it has been a big mistake.

Pete

 

[treeman82]

For some reason this thought has crossed my mind a few times... I know that G W isn't exactly the smartest egg in the basket. So I think that at some level he has a bet going with his father along the lines of him wanting to one up the guy.

 

[treeguy347]

The upside to a bad economy where nobody wants tree work is it weeds some out. Bad times like this help to get rid of fly-by-nighters, and weaker competitors. Those that don't have stable customer bases and good reputations will have a much harder time surviving not having work. The ones that do make it through to the next upswing will be in great shape when it happens. I watched when a windstorm hit us in 1998, everybody thought they were tree guys because they had a chainsaw. Through the slowing economy, those guys that came in to the industry because of the abundance of work have begun to close up shop and go back to "regular" jobs. Just like Treetx said: "Be ready to strike when the iron is hot."

 

[rahtreelimbs]

There was a time when America practiced what I think was called " Isolationism. " It would nice to do that again: we bother no one and no one bothers us.

 

[TREETX]

Isolationism is why we didn't stop Hitler in Munich. Around 20million people lost their lives due to the war that followed which could have been ended with an early strike.

You can't hide your head in the ground in a global economy.

Right now is bad for tree biz but good for later on. It will weed out the hacks and the new companies that got too equipment intensive and too top heavy with large fixed costs. I am making less money now but my costs are largely variable.

Pete - look out for the black helicopters in whisper mode

 

[Kneejerk Bombas]

Another problem with the "head in the sand" approach is the modern weapons like nuclear warheads and biologicals. Imagine if Sadam makes up a batch of little nuclear warheads, gives then to his buddy bin Laden, who has one shipped to each major city, having your head buried in the sand isn't going to save your a$$ in this scenario.

 

[murphy4trees]

History police chiming in... The Russians alone lost 25 million in WWII.
In the mean time Michigan is begging for some federal $$$ to fight the ash bettle and GW won't pay his bar tab until he's through with Iraq... By the time the beaurocrats realize the scope of the problem... it may be too late and we'll have our own dessert to live in.
You don't miss your water 'til your wells run dry.

 

[Reed]

Quick fix then problem's solved.

Chemotherapy for cancer.

Kill the agitator.

Xanax for anxiety.

Alamo for oak wilt.

Bombs for Iraq.

Sterilization for Indian girls.

Small pox for Indian blankets.

Agent Orange for jungle cover.

Depleated uranium for anti-tank rounds.

Money for Osama.

Germs for Saddam.

Billions for Turkey.

Trade deals for Pakistan.

Appointments for Bush campaign workers.

Cocaine for Noreiga.

Nail Jesus to the cross.

Guns for Suharto.

Promises to Pol Pot.

Troops for Diem.

Clear cutting for forest fires.

Terror level orange for protection.

War for protection.

Bush for protection.

Totalitarianism for freedom.

finally,

Give me a beer, and perhaps a joint. With Iraq going full bore, now's the time to grow pot and invite the Chinese to land in Frisco.

 

[monkeypuzzle]

BEEN GROWING FOR YEARS THANKS TO CANADA

 

[TREETX]

OW, I'll bring the beer.

 

[Reed]

Now we're talkin'.

Had a bullsession in buddy's garage last night - remember Dr. Mangler TreeTx? Well, yeah, that's where we were - again.

They asked about you and I said you was (proper English depleted in honor of Mr. Blair) in Germany. Got 'em wondering who I'm hanging out with now - they are suspicious by nature and training. I told 'em it's cool, you're over there checkin'-out the fraus and drinking real beer. They have a wish list for you however - just some basic NATO supplies.

Either way, they asked me to tell you to avoid Heathrow (England alltogether) and fondle a couple of those beer-hall girls for them (they are kind of crude in that respect). Ship your climbing supplies home separately, give the fuel tank (if you have a saw) a couple days to dry out, and if by chance you head to Afghani or Turkey in the next few days, could you get some roast-beef hash that comes wrapped in foil coins? (something to that effect)

Be careful a bunch, look widely around and keep your nationality Canadian.

Got a game of darts and some eight-ball racked-up for your return, all in full view of the tooth trophies mounted proudly.

Oakwilt.