I would never under estimate what the Chinese can build. During the ninties they came over here and bought everything related to manufacturing technology they could find...with our blessings. Soon after the new administration came into power (Clinton's) they took the meat of the power of who decides what is sensitive technology and what technology can be exported to what countries away from the Pentagon and into the State Department....good business. Opened the flood gates to all those little guys who were having a tough time here to sell their wears here ...good right? AND it helped the Admin at the time to cosy up to China..also good for world politics..(It didn't entirely start with Clinton's Admin...)
Well some DARPA (ARPA..LOL cause they blended the DARPA and NIST to creat ARPA then as well! More efficient and allowed more control over the results from those folks) funded projects that normally would have died on the vine once their project came to completion based on the old rules now had a whole new life and customer base..Our tax funded advanced research flew out the door for pennys on the dollars from around 1993 until the late ninties. Our commercially available CAD/CAM/CAE stuff as well as lots of other bleeding edge Software projects went as well...some companies having a tough time in the shrinking dollar value of CAD/CAM, sensing a short term killing; sold SOURCE code to both Indian companies like Godredge & Boyce( Nice folks too..A type writer company fronting for a HUGE software house) and the Chinese Central Industrial Complex in Bejing..no kidding. All perfectly legal and actually ENCOURAGED to spur the economy!!!
Bottom line is this:
1) There are a lot of very smart people in China & India.
2) What defines the possibilty of having a new concept to be reality is the ability to MAKE it!
3) Manufacturing technology enables advanced technology and concepts to go from idea to reality.
4) As of the Ninites China has the same level of Software to design, model and analyse idea's we have here.
5) And as of the Ninties China has the same level of Manufacturing technology as we do to make those new ideas ..or rehash old ones.
I figured from around 1995 it would take 10-15 years for the technology transfered to be integrated into their economic system to the point where our economy to feel the impact of that fundemental change in the balance of technology.
I hear some saying thats to optimistic.
Good news is lots of neat stuff will be available for really cheap.
The bad news is now its going to even tougher from American companies with American labor to compete dollar for dollar.
Almost as if it was planned that way. There is a theory that some in the political world would seed problems so they can solve them in the future to enhance their political lot in life. Lets see who (if any one) brings this issue in the form of USA & the west vs. Chinese cost of manufacturings and its impact on our economy ...to the table during this next election)
Thanks, you guys who narrowed that technology gap from 15-20 years to parity! My kids are going to pay for that decision. All I can do now is vote and pray I'm wrong. Yea I know the theory they would get to that level anyway..its just that it would cost them as much as it cost us if they had to develop those things themselves and there is a timing issue. We give what we have, they don't have to spend the TIME or resources AND have it to compete with us faster.
(my first and last posting on this subject here. Flame away if you like..I've said my piece. )
(PS: This from the same group who promoted the Dot Com scam where Billions of dollars of capital were flushed into the economy on these startup companies trying to make the .com thing bigger than real. That "virtual" the High tech economy looked real good until the bottom fell out in 1999. Most product developed was "vapor ware" anyway. So around year 2000-2001 the venture funded economy sputters and dies. Very few of those companies survived. All that growth came to a stop....and then the stock market crashed. What a surprise. Now we have to restart the ecomomy with less & tighter venture funding along with the accellerated competition from China & other oversea economies.
As someone has on their signiture.."what doesn't kill us will make us stronger".)