July 8, 1991
After shooting the breeze with my roommate Brian over a few beers the other night, I got thinking about an interesting statistical concept. I learned something I never knew about Brian, something that to me was startlingly intriguing: he’s the direct blood descendant of two generations of renowned treemen from northern New York. His grandfather had a long and storied career as a logger, and later retired as a logging superintendent in the great Adirondack lumberwoods. And his father was a legendary tree climber and later a beloved and respected forestry supervisor. He died an early and unlikely death in a car accident.
Yet despite this legacy in Brian’s ancestry, he’ll be the first to admit that he just can’t climb trees. When he applied to college he wanted to become a surveyor. But they told him because of his limited mathematical background, he should not pursue such a career, so he wound up in Urban Tree Management, the field his father excelled so well in, but one in which Brian knew he would never excel in.
I know Brian well; I know his work ethic and his sticktoitedness. He would have succeeded and excelled in surveying. The college advisors told him wrong.
It’s called “regression to the mean,” the probabilistic concept I was thinking about. For those who aren’t familiar with statistics, it means whenever a person (or any biological form) has an uncommonly large, small, fast, smart, ugly, beautiful, strong, etc. offspring, the offspring of that superlative person will tend to revert back to normal. Such a statistical anomaly is a standout, an outlier, and the law of averages dictates that their offspring tend to revert back to normal. If you look at sports standouts, celebrities, scientific geniuses, or just about anybody who has stood out for uncommon achievement, with few exceptions, you never see their offspring achieve similar greatness.
And I’m the same as Brian, in that I’m the son of a man who excelled spectacularly in his career and who also died young, and whose career I doubt I could ever match. So I chose a career I was interested in, really enjoyed and could do well at. But because some know-nothing, second-guessing, administrative do-nothing convinced Brian he couldn’t pursue his goal, Brian wound up in a career he never wanted to be in.
Do what you love to do, follow your dreams, and never let anybody stand in your way.
[Brian started a tree company in Tupper Lake, NY in 1993, but it went under after five years. He now owns a successful construction company in the same area.]
Pruned a Sugar, a Red, a Silver, and a Norway Maple today. We pruned them away from the roofs of two daycare centers and deadwooded them. Also installed three cables.