I just recently installed my third Geo water heater. This was a 50 gallon. Its a great idea but compared to the 40 gal gas it replaced, it doesn't keep up with a family of four. It just takes too long to recover between showers. Only during low usage times does it ever use just the pump. It's mostly going full bore trying to keep up during the morning showers. None of them have been even close to the first hour ratings. I think these are a great idea, just need more volume. Climate, environment conditions effect performance & recovery & mode of operation and at four or five times the cost of a standard electric water heater ( not including install cost) it will take decades to see any ROI. I think the second generation is better than the first, as they had a lot of problems with early units and the controller. The repairs aren't cheap either, if you can find a GE qualified tech. A 50 struggles to provide 2 8-10 minute showers within an hour, so they've had to spread out usage. The kids (girls) really don't like this. I'm scheduled to change out one of the three next week. Going with a Bradford white eF series high efficiency low NoX heater. Its just like having a window shaker AC unit in your house, good for summer but its a lot to reheat. That cost isn't anywhere in the calculations or expense of ownership. Its enuff to make the mechanical room pretty cool to cold. When the furnace turns on it takes a few before it stops blowing cold air. Good for summer tho. Overall I think they have their place in the market where no fuel is available. And or where usage is low. I would own one myself if electric was my only source.
Please provide a little more detail, which mode are you using when you say the recovery takes too long, I assume hybrid mode?
Where are they located and how warm is the ambient air the HP is working in?
Can you tell us more about the previous 2 you have owned why they were replaced?
Did you have issues with them?
Were they first or second generation models and why did you get a third one when you are indicating it does not meet your demands?
Also as i previously stated, the actual size is 45 gallons and if the tank was larger is would have a better 1 hour rating but slower recovery without a larger HP system as the heating elements dont kick on untill late in the first hour. The shower test is described in detail in the analysis I posted and I believe a 2 shower rating is a sound estimate... The GeoSpring does have two 4500 W elements in it but it only uses one at a time and never in conjunction with the HP. The 4500 W element is a very common size element for 50 gal electric DHW tanks. It does have limitations and according to a sizing chart I found 50-80 gal tanks are recomended for a family of 4. So, this is actually on the smaller side for a hosue of 4. In addition, you will never get any electric DHW tank to compete with an gas/oil DHW tank as gas typically offer way more heating capacity. A quick search for the tank you described (50 gal) says it is 40,000 Btu/hr, thats approximately equivalent to 11,700 watts, thats roughly 2.5 times the heating ability of the GeoSpring resistance elements!
Moving from a fuel oil boiler/indirect DHW tank to the GeoSpring is very easy for me to justify and very easy to get ROI due to the price of fuel oil. The price of natural gas makes the justification a little harder but I bet it would be in your favor if you actually put numbers on paper. Also, keep in mind the energy factor for that new gas DHW tank is 0.62 vice the GeoSpring which can easilly achieve 1.63... If natural gas prices become volatile like propane has recently then you might not actually be saving anything in the end...
BTW, a quick glance at the high efficiency heaters you described cost about $600. The GeoSpring is $1000 but still has the $300 fed tax credit so I think the extra $100 is justified and your ROI with the Nat Gas DHW tank might not be as good as you believer either if you have to pay an annual service fee for the burner. And I dont think anyone is going to take into consideration the cost of install because they will probably do it themselves, I know I am capable of running some wire and and adding a breaker to the pannel and sweating some copper.