Summer outlook

[tree md]

Here is what I have observed and know. Every time fuel prices get near the $4 mark my phone slows down. When gas prices went over $4 a few years back my phone entirely quit ringing. I had less that 6 calls in two months at that time and was listed in 2 yellow page directories. Of course there was a lot more uncertainty other than fuel prices at that time but people just literally sat down on their money and quit spending... Around here they did anyway. When fuel prices go that high a lot of people loose their disposable income. It not just the cost of gas but everything goes up along with gas prices, like the cost of food. There is just less money to go around when people have to pay that much for fuel. People quit traveling and spending... When fuel went that high last time we were running 5 trucks and a chipper and were paying a thousand a week in fuel costs... People's money goes towards higher priority things than trees when there is less of it to go around. Like fuel to get to work and food for their families.

 

[superjunior]

Around here gas jumped up .20 over the last couple days. It's at 3.69 and climbing

 

[2treeornot2tree]

Around here gas jumped up .20 over the last couple days. It's at 3.69 and climbing

Its all bull####. Our goverment is just ####ing us over.

 

[tree md]

It's not just the government, it's the oil companies, the banks, big insurance companies... Big business.

Kind of sad that they can create a crisis anytime they want to up their prices and fees and play with people's lives they way they do.

 

[2treeornot2tree]

Its funny how big oil needs to raise the rates for barrels of oil because they say they arent making money, but then they make record profits every quarter. It will never change because all the politions or #######s as i call them all have lots of stock in oil. And I am sure oil lines there pockets too.

 

[Bomber]

I would rather burn fossil fuel then drive a prius bucket truck or a chevy volt chip truck...thats just me though.

 

[2treeornot2tree]

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~Will Courtier~

Just wanted to say thank you for your service to our country. :msp_thumbup:

 

[TreeAce]

Here is what I have observed and know. Every time fuel prices get near the $4 mark my phone slows down. When gas prices went over $4 a few years back my phone entirely quit ringing. I had less that 6 calls in two months at that time and was listed in 2 yellow page directories. Of course there was a lot more uncertainty other than fuel prices at that time but people just literally sat down on their money and quit spending... Around here they did anyway. When fuel prices go that high a lot of people loose their disposable income. It not just the cost of gas but everything goes up along with gas prices, like the cost of food. There is just less money to go around when people have to pay that much for fuel. People quit traveling and spending... When fuel went that high last time we were running 5 trucks and a chipper and were paying a thousand a week in fuel costs... People's money goes towards higher priority things than trees when there is less of it to go around. Like fuel to get to work and food for their families.

My fears exactly. I have pretty well decided against the bucket for this year. Although I was VERY pleased at the insurance quote i was given. I quess I had some points that fell off:msp_thumbup:. I decided to paint the cab of my dump truck, buy a new saw or two, a few other misc items and MAYBE a wraptor. Then just see what happens. My over head will be so low this year its gonna be almost silly Granted I wont be able to go "high volume" if the work IS there but if not i will still be making money. If calls pour in I can bid higher and be alittle picky. I could use a mini skid....hhmmm....

 

[Blakesmaster]

My fears exactly. I have pretty well decided against the bucket for this year. Although I was VERY pleased at the insurance quote i was given. I quess I had some points that fell off:msp_thumbup:. I decided to paint the cab of my dump truck, buy a new saw or two, a few other misc items and MAYBE a wraptor. Then just see what happens. My over head will be so low this year its gonna be almost silly Granted I wont be able to go "high volume" if the work IS there but if not i will still be making money. If calls pour in I can bid higher and be alittle picky. I could use a mini skid....hhmmm....

Mini's are the ####! I strongly suggest one before a bucket. Much cheaper to buy and maintain. Wraptor is sweet too, especially if you can steal one like I did for $1650. lol

 

[peetar]

Fuel cost could be anything this year. The middle east is as hot as a region can get without multi-national war. And that looks likely. Russia and China pretty much have Syria and Iran's back right now, so who knows what will happen.
The EU expects a slight neg. growth rate this year.

See what the early flow of estimates looks like.

If you have 15% of sale price for un-seen repairs, plus 4 months of payments in the bank (after DP), you should be good to go.

The thing that scares me is that they are reporting that US demand is down (for oil), which simply doesn't happen in an economic recovery.

 

[tree md]

The thing that scares me is that they are reporting that US demand is down (for oil), which simply doesn't happen in an economic recovery.

You said it.

 

[tree MDS]

My fears exactly. I have pretty well decided against the bucket for this year. Although I was VERY pleased at the insurance quote i was given. I quess I had some points that fell off:msp_thumbup:. I decided to paint the cab of my dump truck, buy a new saw or two, a few other misc items and MAYBE a wraptor. Then just see what happens. My over head will be so low this year its gonna be almost silly Granted I wont be able to go "high volume" if the work IS there but if not i will still be making money. If calls pour in I can bid higher and be alittle picky. I could use a mini skid....hhmmm....

I'm gonna lay low for a bit this year and enjoy the low overhead thing for a bit myself this year. That said, I just finished up four and a half years of considerable (for me) equipment payments. If you started with nothing, like me taking on a payment here and there is necessary.. if you really wanna get somewhere (IMO).

I bought my bucket after getting a pinched nerve in my right shoulder. I couldn't climb for a while, so I started subbing out a buddy's bucket (after ten years of climbing all my own trees). Well, the shoulder eventually (mostly) healed, but I said F that, I need a truck. I look at it as income protection based on what I just said. Just some thoughts. I know you have kids, and are buying a house, so only you know what you can get away with $ wise. Good luck man.

 

[gtrees]

I dont have a big down payment so I am estimating 700-1000 a month. i am not questioning how useful a bucket is or how much time it will save etc... I already know what they can do. I am just wondering if NOW is a good time for ME to make the jump. I am just worried that people will be hurting finacially and it will effect tree work. i know its so hard to say. Let me ask this....IF gas actually was 4.50 a gallon or more....how much can we expect that to effect our market?

4.50? Diesel will be over 6 a gallon. Just buy that bucket and take your chances. It'll make your money back. Your belly will definately get bigger though.

 

[Kottonwood]

It's not just the government, it's the oil companies, the banks, big insurance companies... Big business.

Kind of sad that they can create a crisis anytime they want to up their prices and fees and play with people's lives they way they do.

Yep.. oil prices based on speculation is a ####ed system. I think the real fact of the matter is that it is getting harder to get cheap oil and even if we are not running out of oil (which we probably are) deep drilling for oil is an extremely risky venture financially (bp oil spill). No matter what happens to demand oil prices are gonna keep rising. I think demand for oil in the us going down in an economic recovery is actually a very good sign. It shows that we are lowering our dependence on oil (very slowly). I have a personal goal for my business to be on fully homemade diesel fuel within two years.

BigWill1985

The only way I have been able to feasibly purchase equipment for our business it to outright buy everything. That way, we have no payments and are able to keep a low overhead. That way, when work gets slow, we are still able to keep our stuff!

There is a lot of value in buying used equipment that needs some repair, as long as you have a guy or two that is able to do the work. I bought our dump truck for $3,000, just because it had a bad title. Had it towed to our lot, applied for abandoned title, and had it going in ~45 days after purchasing it. Had to do a few random repairs (power steering hoses, adjust carb, unstick the choke, air filter, fuel system treatment, rebuild master cylinder, and a few other odds and ends), but it was well worth th extra time we had to invest into the truck. Now we have a $5,000 truck that does everything we need, with just a little time and inconvenience added in.

Yep, that is the best way to go in this economy. I have gotten a damn good deal on every piece of equipment I have bought, most of it needed work. I don't mind buying stuff with bad titles either. In CO it is a HUGE pain in the ass to register something without a title so most people won't even mess with it. I picked up my flatbed f450 for 3500 with no title. 7.3 diesel with only 100k and a brand new tranny... yep I'll take it. Also got my morbark 2400 for 12k with no title. I love customizing and working on my own equipment anyways so I don't mind buying broke #### either. Only piece of equipment I have that I took a loan out for was my bucket, could have paid it off by now but I have been spending my money on modifying, repairing, and customizing my other trucks and equipment instead. I figure If I am running two full time crews a 400 dollar monthly payment isn't that big of a deal. Even If I really slowed down and had to go back to just me and a groundie.... a 400 dollar monthly payment is no big deal.

Mini's are the ####! I strongly suggest one before a bucket

Yep, love my mini. I just upgraded to an 08 sk650 and couldn't be happier. My crew jokes about my swiss army knife approach to tools. I love having one tool that does so many different jobs, I am also a huge fan of the stihl kombi system.

We had a big windstorm here last week so I have been pulling trees off of houses and whatnot for the past few days. Friday had a guy call with a limber pine in his front yard blown over and hung up in some other trees. It wasn't a big tree, maybe 20" dbh and 35-40 ft. I decided to swing out on saturday with my girlfriend to clean it up. She has never been on a job and has been bugging me to run a chainsaw. I charged the guy 300 for the tree and the stump, he was very happy with the price. I asked if he would pay in cash and he said that's cool but he had to go to the ATM. I told him cool we would be done in an hour, he kind of chuckled thinking I was joking or didn't know what I was talking about.... by the time he got back from the ATM we had cleaned up and I was showing my girlfriend how to use the stump grinder.... goddam I love my mini