This was discussed ad nauseum a year ago about this time, but I'll reply anyway.
If you want to get even more technical, kinetic energy is proportional to the square of velocity, so swinging twice as fast at an even mass gives you 4 times the energy.
But, that being said, there is much more at play here than weight and swing speed. I have no scientific proof to back me up, yet, but I feel like maul shape plays an important role here as well. Monster mauls are basically triangular in shape versus the thin profile of an axe or 6 lb maul. I feel that at impact, the blunter shape works to spread the fibers of the wood further apart, rather than just "sliding between fibers" like an axe does. This serves to better break the overall structure of the wood.
Going back to swing speed, I'm also not convinced you can always use the argument that a person can swing half the weight twice as fast. I have an old 6 lb maul at home and swinging first it, then the 13 lb Monster, I'm almost certain I can't swing that 6 pounder twice as fast. Further, when I'm trying to swing it so fast, my accuracy goes down the toilet and accuracy is probably one of the most fundamental skills of effectively using a maul.
I'm not sure it's possible to ever completely answer this question. I have thought about trying to build some kind of test rig, as I have 6 and 8 lb maul heads laying around at home, but I don't know that you can ever account for all the variables. I think it boils down to a matter of personal preference. It's not always possible, but it's best for someone to try out a few different mauls on the wood they're usually going to be splitting and see what works best for them.