Oh joy.
It's Sunday into early next week that we up the ante on the rainfall as forecast models show a long train of tropical moisture taking aim at the Pacific Coast. This is our proverbial "Pineapple Express" fire hose of moisture, but models still are not agreeing on where this hose will aim and how long it'll stick around, but with it in the neighborhood, we need to plan as if it's going to rain heavily non-stop for a couple days and keep an eye for potential river flooding.
I'm hoping the below weather discussion is right, in that the PE warming will be brief. feet. We at least have the benefit of colder ocean temps, typical of a La Nina winter. I'm going to try to get up skiing Friday and Saturday---I've yet to be up, and have a full season's pass to both Crystal and Snoqualmie (Alpental is the real draw there) So far, the current storm hasn't been dumped a huge amount of snow at pass levels, but Baker has received two feet, but that is mighty wet snow,as the water content is 3.2 inches. If the snow levels drop to 2500 as they say today, then skiing tomorrow could be pretty good. If Crystal gets a fair bit more than the paltry 9" in the last two days, I'll head up there.
FXUS66 KSEW 091112 AAA
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST THU DEC 9 2010
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WORDING ABOUT GREEN RIVER IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION.
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOWERY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A
RELATIVE BREAK LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RAINY AND MILDER
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ABOUT A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR 53N/139W. THE AIR MASS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...MOST LIKELY ONE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY.
SO THE SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS -- ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE -- SINCE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS AROUND 3500 FT AT THIS TIME...AND IT WILL FALL TO AROUND
2500 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKS ON TRACK. ANOTHER 1.0 TO 2.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MEANING ANOTHER 1 TO 2.5 FT OF SNOW IS LIKELY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...AHEAD OF A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE DATELINE. THE STRONG WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL REACH THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BRING
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY TO AROUND 7000 FT OVER THE OLYMPICS AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT REMAIN LOWER FOR THE TIME
BEING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. MCDONNAL
.LONG TERM...THE STRONG WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL CLIMBING TO AROUND
7000 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MORE RAIN BUT THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 2500 FT OR SO ON TUESDAY.
THE COOLER SHOWERY REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE BROADLY ON THIS SCENARIO. MCDONNAL