(Weird; my latest reply disappeared ... [guess I passed out before I could remove that pygmy dart....])
I reckon it's a little of all of the above. Combination of not paying attention to the orientation of the clip and technique; I'd be lying if I didn't say I occasionally twisted the bar during that last round of bucking.
So -- New needle cage, Stihl washer, 1.3mm-thick e-clip on order, note to install e-clip with the non-rounded edge facing outward, note to watch cutting technique in future; check, check, check.
Oh, and double-check that the sprocket engages the little twanger for the oiler....
(Guess I'll know for sure later this month when I hope to do some more bucking...)