When will lumber prices normalize?

[ArtB]

When will lumber prices come down?
I predict not until Jan 2023,
Interest rates will be kept low thru next election cycle for purely political reasons.
Hmm, 50 trillion debt soon, divide by 350 million or so = $143,000 standing debt per person (not per family, per person, so say average of 1/2 million $$ per family.
Can taxes rise enough to cover that - no. So cover it by inflation circa late 1970s.
So, sooner or later to slow inflation Fed will raise interest rates, and significantly. As said, I predict early 2023.
Seattle area new houses are pushing 1 million, interest rates go up, not many even $100K/year folks can buy a house, interest payments past their income.
3% goes to say just 5%, interest on 800K goes up to $40k per year, many priced out of the market.
Lumber prices then enter freefall.
I'm old enough to have seen it in the early and mid '70's. MBF construction lumber dropped from near $150 to under $50, bought a couple slings of 2x4 in 1977 for 25 cents each.
Of course, has to collapse a lot more now to get $60 OSB back down to $10.

 

[Huskybill]

We’re in debt? Print more money?

 

[Lee192233]

We’re in debt? Print more money?

Seems to be the answer to keeping the economy propped up. It's not going to be good when the economy finally corrects.

 

[Huskybill]

Where do you think all this covid payments are coming from? The money to the immigrants?

 

[Lee192233]

This is a completely artificially propped up economy. Low interest rates for years, pumping fake easy cash into the economy instead of letting multiple smaller corrections happen. Now I fear hyper inflation and a major economic crash in the next year or two. We can't keep printing money.

 

[Marine5068]

there is not a shortage of raw materials, labor or transportation...the lumber mills are in kahoots on the inflated prices not the stores. The looming housing bubble and economy down turn will crash the prices but not before the lumber mill corporations bank billions in profits.

Actually if you read in depth about it all, It's exactly the opposite of that.
Although the mills haven't increased production over the last year, the ways to get it to market have been hugely affected by lack of and slower transportation that is directly related to Covid19.
Also the higher-than-usual demand of lumber from everyone at home doing their D.I.Y. projects has the store shelves emptied.
So it's the retailers that have jacked up prices to this level, not the mills or transport companies.
Thanks Home Depot.

 

[softdown]

Actually if you read in depth about it all, It's exactly the opposite of that.
Although the mills haven't increased production over the last year, the ways to get it to market have been hugely affected by lack of and slower transportation that is directly related to Covid19.
Also the higher-than-usual demand of lumber from everyone at home doing their D.I.Y. projects has the store shelves emptied.
So it's the retailers that have jacked up prices to this level, not the mills or transport companies.
Thanks Home Depot.

It is not the retailers. They do cost plus pricing as a rule. If HD decided to take advantage then people would flock to 84 Lumber or Lowes etc.

It could be GP and Werehauser acting in unison though. It is likely a combination of factors that have been mentioned.

 

[Ted Jenkins]

In my business prices have more than doubled in the last five years. I expect prices to double again in the next two years. Good hard wood will exceed a thousand easily. Few people working and demand is increasing so what is next. Welfare and unemployment need to crash first. I have a customer who has been working for more than two years at home. He says he does not care what cost are but his fire place will be roaring all winter. He spent almost two thousand to keep his fire place going and we did not even have a cold winter. So it appears that inflation is healthy and will run away again as long as liberalism is healthy. I also expect a correction or economic crash. Thanks

 

[Den]

When will lumber prices come down?
I predict not until Jan 2023,
Interest rates will be kept low thru next election cycle for purely political reasons.
Hmm, 50 trillion debt soon, divide by 350 million or so = $143,000 standing debt per person (not per family, per person, so say average of 1/2 million $$ per family.
Can taxes rise enough to cover that - no. So cover it by inflation circa late 1970s.
So, sooner or later to slow inflation Fed will raise interest rates, and significantly. As said, I predict early 2023.
Seattle area new houses are pushing 1 million, interest rates go up, not many even $100K/year folks can buy a house, interest payments past their income.
3% goes to say just 5%, interest on 800K goes up to $40k per year, many priced out of the market.
Lumber prices then enter freefall.
I'm old enough to have seen it in the early and mid '70's. MBF construction lumber dropped from near $150 to under $50, bought a couple slings of 2x4 in 1977 for 25 cents each.
Of course, has to collapse a lot more now to get $60 OSB back down to $10.

This is a completely artificially propped up economy. Low interest rates for years, pumping fake easy cash into the economy instead of letting multiple smaller corrections happen. Now I fear hyper inflation and a major economic crash in the next year or two. We can't keep printing money.

ArtB and Lee192233, your thought's are absolutely correct.
I've said for many years... American citizen's simply cannot pay back this national debt. How many trillion will be spent before the entire system implodes?
Also, I heard a report about two weeks ago; there is a petition being circulated by state representative's and organization's, in about 22 states, calling for every adult in America over the age of 18 to receive $2000.00 per month as a guaranteed wage/stipend for doing nothing. Utter madness.


.

 

[Wow]

Wisconsin nice is a thing. We're too nice for our own good sometimes. We don't want to hurt anyone's feelings. We wouldn't want to hurt our boss's feelings by asking for a raise. It's probably more the rural/small town population that is that way. Can't speak for the big city people.

I loved visiting Wisconsin. I hiked the Baraboo Cliffs near Devil's lake. I was up there for a week. By air from Shreveport La. to Madison. Auto to DeForest where I was escorted around. That's been a lot of years ago. The people were amazingly nice. I still have friends I met that week. I was the officiating minister/ shaman preforming a wedding all my expenses paid. The bride's mother was Lakota, her Father Catholic and German. Because I was the only person willing to include both cultures in the ceremony ( and actually knew how) due to being raised in both cultures (I'm mixed) they requested me. I'll never forget the town Rio. They called it RI-o and politely corrected me when I pronounced it Re-o as in Spanish. In Spanish the "I" can have an eh sound. E.G. Hay in Spanish is like Ah-E, means "there is". E.G. hay un rio, There is a river. The bride had dark black eyes, long black hair and was beautiful. A young lady maybe 20 ish so sweet and pleasent. Her mom was tall and beautiful long black hair dark eyes. A beauty. She reminded me of Sher. It's a wonderful family to be around. I sure enjoyed my visit. I think it would be a nice place to live but my age and deep roots means I'll stay here where I'm already a part of this land. One day in the not to distant future I'll walk these woods day and night, requiring neither food nor rest. I'll float into tree tops and swim to the bottom of streams and lakes. I'll see this world in ways this flesh can't. I'll be back in Alaska if I choose. I'll see the world and travel through the stars. Frankly I'd be bored locked behind pearly gates, walking on streets of gold listening to harp music. , .
Me I'm gonna travel. Watch my great great grand kids grow up. Then again, maybe it all myth. Either way it makes growing old easier. Maybe I'll visit Wisconsin again. Blessings.

 

[Lee192233]

I loved visiting Wisconsin. I hiked the Baraboo Cliffs near Devil's lake. I was up there for a week. By air from Shreveport La. to Madison. Auto to DeForest where I was escorted around. That's been a lot of years ago. The people were amazingly nice. I still have friends I met that week. I was the officiating minister/ shaman preforming a wedding all my expenses paid. The bride's mother was Lakota, her Father Catholic and German. Because I was the only person willing to include both cultures in the ceremony ( and actually knew how) due to being raised in both cultures (I'm mixed) they requested me. I'll never forget the town Rio. They called it RI-o and politely corrected me when I pronounced it Re-o as in Spanish. In Spanish the "I" can have an eh sound. E.G. Hay in Spanish is like Ah-E, means "there is". E.G. hay un rio, There is a river. The bride had dark black eyes, long black hair and was beautiful. A young lady maybe 20 ish so sweet and pleasent. Her mom was tall and beautiful long black hair dark eyes. A beauty. She reminded me of Sher. It's a wonderful family to be around. I sure enjoyed my visit. I think it would be a nice place to live but my age and deep roots means I'll stay here where I'm already a part of this land. One day in the not to distant future I'll walk these woods day and night, requiring neither food nor rest. I'll float into tree tops and swim to the bottom of streams and lakes. I'll see this world in ways this flesh can't. I'll be back in Alaska if I choose. I'll see the world and travel through the stars. Frankly I'd be bored locked behind pearly gates, walking on streets of gold listening to harp music. , .
Me I'm gonna travel. Watch my great great grand kids grow up. Then again, maybe it all myth. Either way it makes growing old easier. Maybe I'll visit Wisconsin again. Blessings.

Guten morgen. Wie Gehts? That's about the extent of my German. I'm 75% German with the rest being English and Irish. My wife is 100% German. My dad's family spoke German on the farm until he was around six years old.

Thanks for the nice post. I'm glad you enjoyed Wisconsin. I've lived in a 25 mile radius my whole 41 years and I wouldn't have it any other way. There are lots more beautiful places but not a lot with the combination of outdoor activities we have here. I also need the seasons. Every one is important to me. Maybe my view on winter will change as I get older but I still can't imagine leaving.
Thanks again,
Lee

 

[Den]

I loved visiting Wisconsin. I hiked the Baraboo Cliffs near Devil's lake. I was up there for a week. By air from Shreveport La. to Madison. Auto to DeForest where I was escorted around. That's been a lot of years ago. The people were amazingly nice. I still have friends I met that week. I was the officiating minister/ shaman preforming a wedding all my expenses paid. The bride's mother was Lakota, her Father Catholic and German. Because I was the only person willing to include both cultures in the ceremony ( and actually knew how) due to being raised in both cultures (I'm mixed) they requested me. I'll never forget the town Rio. They called it RI-o and politely corrected me when I pronounced it Re-o as in Spanish. In Spanish the "I" can have an eh sound. E.G. Hay in Spanish is like Ah-E, means "there is". E.G. hay un rio, There is a river. The bride had dark black eyes, long black hair and was beautiful. A young lady maybe 20 ish so sweet and pleasent. Her mom was tall and beautiful long black hair dark eyes. A beauty. She reminded me of Sher. It's a wonderful family to be around. I sure enjoyed my visit. I think it would be a nice place to live but my age and deep roots means I'll stay here where I'm already a part of this land. One day in the not to distant future I'll walk these woods day and night, requiring neither food nor rest. I'll float into tree tops and swim to the bottom of streams and lakes. I'll see this world in ways this flesh can't. I'll be back in Alaska if I choose. I'll see the world and travel through the stars. Frankly I'd be bored locked behind pearly gates, walking on streets of gold listening to harp music. , .
Me I'm gonna travel. Watch my great great grand kids grow up. Then again, maybe it all myth. Either way it makes growing old easier. Maybe I'll visit Wisconsin again. Blessings.

Okay, great looking friendly American Indian women, with long dark hair and dark eyes.
I'm immediately going to log off of Arboristsite, Google a map of Wisconsin showing where Rio is, and prepare the car for a trip to Rio. I'm single... I can do this.

.

 

[slowp]

ArtB and Lee192233, your thought's are absolutely correct.
I've said for many years... American citizen's simply cannot pay back this national debt. How many trillion will be spent before the entire system implodes?
Also, I heard a report about two weeks ago; there is a petition being circulated by state representative's and organization's, in about 22 states, calling for every adult in America over the age of 18 to receive $2000.00 per month as a guaranteed wage/stipend for doing nothing. Utter madness.


.

Not. The debt seems to be reduced when we have a certain party that is in office. That party is the one that is accused of raising taxes, and they do, but the debt goes down. Then, the other party gets voted in and they cut taxes for some people and entities, start wars, and loot the government, and the debt starts going up again. Look at the past. And yes, inflation went up in the 70s. Remember the oil embargo and the gas shortages? Oil prices shot up so the price of everything else had to go up because of transportation costs. There was even a shortage of sugar for some reason. I suspect greed paid a part in some of the "shortages". Let me see, Nixon and Ford were in power at that time. Look it up.

This is getting into politics which some on here cannot seem to avoid, always blaming things on liberals. Well, hate to tell you this, but we get what we vote for and right now, the people elected the folks you hate. I don't, by the way. Now, to blame lumber prices on evil liberals is pretty childish. I expect the mills are going to try to ramp up production if people can get vaccinated and Covid slows down. It has nothing to do with a guaranteed income, which some of you might be appreciative for later in life after your job is mechanized and you are redundant. But, I'm straying from the lumber topic.
Wish we could at least have this page free of the political venom.

 

[Lee192233]

Not. The debt seems to be reduced when we have a certain party that is in office. That party is the one that is accused of raising taxes, and they do, but the debt goes down. Then, the other party gets voted in and they cut taxes for some people and entities, start wars, and loot the government, and the debt starts going up again. Look at the past. And yes, inflation went up in the 70s. Remember the oil embargo and the gas shortages? Oil prices shot up so the price of everything else had to go up because of transportation costs. There was even a shortage of sugar for some reason. I suspect greed paid a part in some of the "shortages". Let me see, Nixon and Ford were in power at that time. Look it up.

This is getting into politics which some on here cannot seem to avoid, always blaming things on liberals. Well, hate to tell you this, but we get what we vote for and right now, the people elected the folks you hate. I don't, by the way. Now, to blame lumber prices on evil liberals is pretty childish. I expect the mills are going to try to ramp up production if people can get vaccinated and Covid slows down. It has nothing to do with a guaranteed income, which some of you might be appreciative for later in life after your job is mechanized and you are redundant. But, I'm straying from the lumber topic.
Wish we could at least have this page free of the political venom.

I have zero trust in the federal government. Both parties are evil in their own special ways and both have screwed up the economy. I have very little love for an entity that forcibly takes too much of my money and then spends it in ways I don't agree with. No more political posts from me. Sorry OP.

 

[slowp]

This appeared on my facebook page. The Hampton explanation. https://www.hamptonlumber.com/unpac...uiKU3AyUPFSvQ0qiFBami1b7tGflT2xTpC8TskWwjyzRE

 

[northmanlogging]

This appeared on my facebook page. The Hampton explanation. https://www.hamptonlumber.com/unpac...uiKU3AyUPFSvQ0qiFBami1b7tGflT2xTpC8TskWwjyzRE

Before the uninformed conspiracy theorists join in...

"why should we believe what the mills have to say, the mills are choking production to drive up prices"

Or maybe you can take what someone has to say at face value, do some critical thinking, connect the dots with a GLOBAL PANDEMIC, then surmise the maybe they ain't lying to you.

 

[Lee192233]

Perfect storm of many factors....

 

[frank_]

same in the uk now, no cement available even tho the production is up 30% on last year
quotes from builders not guaranteed on materials cost
British steel are taking no new orders

 

[Wow]

Then it's working. When all the economies crash they (?) Take over. Did someone say, new world order!

 

[northmanlogging]

Then it's working. When all the economies crash they (?) Take over. Did someone say, new world order!

care for some grape flavor aid?