When will lumber prices normalize?

[Jhenderson]

Where do you find this info on amount of money printed?

All you have to do ask Google, bing , etc. The fed upped its initial order in April of 2020 from 5.2 Billion ” notes” to 6.2 Billion “ notes” . That equates to $226 BILLION in cash to cover demand . That demand comes from the infusion of $$$ not in the system by people who cash govt checks . Now realize we‘ve gone from crazy in 2020 to insane inn2021. The fed hasn’t released its request for cash to the public yet for this fiscal year. Realize also this is fiat $$$ . Nothing but a promise to back it up. A promise from people who are far from trustworthy.

 

[Jhenderson]

S

Ever wonder where all that L+I money we are forced to give goes? I've paid into for most of my adult life and much of my teenage years, along with millions of other americans over the last 80 years or so, at no time has there been so many folks unemployed that L+I was ever in even the remotest possibility of running out of money. The "system" is working like its supposed to, it was created to prevent another great depression, and has proven its metal several times.

Its literally OUR money, we put in, incase of something like this, its doing its job, and for once L+I isn't ****ing things up for everyone.

Doesn't mean that I'm not going to make fun of Bill Hilly and his "back injury" that prevents him from lifting even 12oz (while he slams down bud tall boys like a fat kid drinking Tab)

You need to do a little research before posting again. Unemployment is an insurance fund. A state insurance fund. An insurance fund thats broke. The states Borrow Federal $$ when the fund gets tapped out. The $$ paid in are a % of payroll based on a minimum + your history of laying off employees. The Fed prints money ( or an IOU) to lend to the states that have run out of unemployment funds . Unless you’re a lic employer you’ve never paid a penny into unemployment insurance. That’s the employers cost alone. And since you can’t legally lay yourself off you don’t pay on yourself. The govt changed part of that when they closed businesses. If you were shut down you were eligible even though you Never paid into the insurance fund. Another reason they’re printing $$$. As a sole proprietor your not eligible for unemployment under normal circumstances.
Just so you know, my wife was an accountant for the RI employment office for over 20 years. . It was her job to reconcile the State books with the Fed books. Borrowing goes on daily to keep up with the demand. The amount states are in the red over this foolishness is no secret.

 

[slowp]

All you have to do ask Google, bing , etc. The fed upped its initial order in April of 2020 from 5.2 Billion to 6.2 Billion in cash to cover demand . That demand comes from the infusion of $$$ not in the system by people who cash govt checks . Now realize we‘ve gone from crazy in 2020 to insane inn2021. The fed hasn’t released its request for cash to the public yet for this fiscal year. Realize also this is fiat $$$ . Nothing but a promise to back it up. A promise from people who are far from trustworthy.

And then, how do you choose what to believe from Google, Bing, etc? How do you know the reliability of the site you go to? What is their background? Experience? Education?

 

[Jhenderson]

Does federal reserve.org ring a bell? Straight from the horses mouth. Did you even Bother to look for yourself? No, of course not. You might get information you don’t like.

 

[northmanlogging]

well for starters, money to l+I is based on risk of injury as well as record of layoffs, though every state is different.
if RI is bankrupt because of this that falls squarely on RI, to say thats true for every state is foolish. Especially since in some states the unemployment rate is still under 6% and has been for around 12 years

as for printing more money, cash money is a complicated beast, printing 225b is only a drop in the bucket, could be as easily explained by population expansion and normal rates of economic expansion.

now if they were to increase paper money into the trillions, then maybe it would be an indicator of inflation.

besides, most money is digital now anyway, wealth per se is just what ever your bank account says, it's highly unlikely that there is enough cash anywhere to pay everyone if everyone decided to cash out in the next month.

seriously ya all been huffing the same farts and sucking on the flavor aid a little to long, stop and have a short think about what you are saying and hearing, ask yourself A: is it possible and how
B:why
C:what are the motives
D:who does it directly benefit

 

[slowp]

And, that is why mechanized logging has it's upside. Workers are in cabs and not out amongst the stobby stuff. Workers are a bit more responsible than young Bubba who drank too much over the weekend and has brown bottle flu on Monday so doesn't show up, along with half of the crew.

I was once told that Glenoma was the L&I insurance collecting capital of the world and also a major recreational boat owning area. Doubtful, but adds to a colorful image. Once again, that's just a legend and I have my doubts about it. Aberdeen probably had it beat. All this was in the 1980s when logging was going on every hillside, or so it seemed.

And, I wasn't the one posting about money being printed, so it wasn't my responsibility to look it up. The one who makes statements and claims them to be factual either posts where their info came from or STFU in the real world.

 

[slowp]

Also, L&I money, in our fair state, don't move here, is connected to how the accident rate is. If you've been out and about where there has been an injury accident, you will hear it mentioned that the company's rates will go up.

When I last worked, the insurance rates were about the same as the hourly wage. One operator was planning on only using his yarder in Oregon because our fair state, don't move here, had such high rates for yarder operations.

 

[Jhenderson]

well for starters, money to l+I is based on risk of injury as well as record of layoffs, though every state is different.
if RI is bankrupt because of this that falls squarely on RI, to say thats true for every state is foolish. Especially since in some states the unemployment rate is still under 6% and has been for around 12 years

as for printing more money, cash money is a complicated beast, printing 225b is only a drop in the bucket, could be as easily explained by population expansion and normal rates of economic expansion.

now if they were to increase paper money into the trillions, then maybe it would be an indicator of inflation.

besides, most money is digital now anyway, wealth per se is just what ever your bank account says, it's highly unlikely that there is enough cash anywhere to pay everyone if everyone decided to cash out in the next month.

seriously ya all been huffing the same farts and sucking on the flavor aid a little to long, stop and have a short think about what you are saying and hearing, ask yourself A: is it possible and how
B:why
C:what are the motives
D:who does it directly benefit

Your expertise in the financial world is only exceeded by your knowledge of unemployment. Unemployment ins rates have NOTHING to do with risk. That would be Workman’s Comp. As for the unemployment rate? Anything over 3.5 - 4 % puts the system in a hole. As of the last quarter of 2020, YOUR STATE was charging employers a “ Solvency “ tax on top of their normal % due to the unemployment fund running dry.
Do yourself a favor and research things before typing. It’s better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak up and remove all doubt.

 

[northmanlogging]

Your expertise in the financial world is only exceeded by your knowledge of unemployment. Unemployment ins rates have NOTHING to do with risk. That would be Workman’s Comp. As for the unemployment rate? Anything over 3.5 - 4 % puts the system in a hole. As of the last quarter of 2020, YOUR STATE was charging employers a “ Solvency “ tax on top of their normal % due to the unemployment fund running dry.
Do yourself a favor and research things before typing. It’s better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak up and remove all doubt.

Well J, as I mentioned, Here in WA (don't move here), they are one and the same. And if memory serves most states are set up the same way. As for a solvency tax never heard of it, the rates fluctuate every year, largely based on risk of each industry, but also on how ****** an individual employer is. They go up, but they sometimes do in fact go down.

As for the rest of your statement, best take your own advice.

 

[Jhenderson]

You‘ve admitted your ignorance by not even understanding the solvency tax. It’s an additional fee paid by employers for continuing to employ people. Money out of their pockets, Not Yours, to keep unemployment insurance from going belly up because of the govt expanding coverage and raising payments. Look up your own state employment regs. As I told you, risk plays no part. It’s employer history with a modifier for businesses that traditionally lay off and rehire . Such businesses might include construction or tourism since both are somewhat seasonal.
Brush up on actual facts, not supposition. Kinda like your “ Facts “ about the AMA that turned out to 100% WRONG.

 

[catbuster]

“Shovel-ready” is such a ******** term. Even if a project goes design-build like the ORB or the current 265/71 overhaul we have here it still takes time for the minimal planning on those jobs, to acquire ROW, easement, bid the work, award the work, submit items to engineers for approval, procure materials, organize labor and equipment.

Then a job is shovel ready. Unless it’s replacing a bridge deck. Then it’s Bid-Well ready.

Solvency tax is a surcharge tax meant to aid in re-employment. I’ve paid it for a long time across a few states. It’s just part of doing business, I try damn hard to keep my guys busy all year, but if I have to lay them off and it keeps them able to keep UI so be it. Taxes are what they are.

 

[sawfun]

You aren't factoring in wait times at shippers, receivers, scales, fuel, traffic, weather, etc, etc.

Average 2500 miles a week, at 65 cpm that's "in theory" around 75k. But you'd be working at least 14hr days, 7 days a week, so 5100 hrs. Or about $15/hr.
Here you can be on duty 20hrs a day, drive for 15.
L48 is 11hrs driving, 14hrs on duty.

Many outfits pay in the 45 cpm area too.

Many truckers make near minimum wage if the hours spent working are factored.

Well you can drive for TriMet at $15/hour to start and up to $31/hour top pay in three years. Trick is, you gotta be able to put up with a ton of shxt. They are having a hard time getting drivers at that rate that don't quit, wash out, can't pass a drug test, or get in wrecks. I've been doing it for 30 years, and it ain't getting easier.

 

[northmanlogging]

You‘ve admitted your ignorance by not even understanding the solvency tax. It’s an additional fee paid by employers for continuing to employ people. Money out of their pockets, Not Yours, to keep unemployment insurance from going belly up because of the govt expanding coverage and raising payments. Look up your own state employment regs. As I told you, risk plays no part. It’s employer history with a modifier for businesses that traditionally lay off and rehire . Such businesses might include construction or tourism since both are somewhat seasonal.
Brush up on actual facts, not supposition. Kinda like your “ Facts “ about the AMA that turned out to 100% WRONG.

You keep sayin the same ****, and now your bringing up the American Motorcycle Association? on a Forestry forum? (have I talked **** about them? I mean I have but on here?)

EACH STATE HAS ITS OWN RULES FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURRANCE read that again, and again until you figure out how to stop assuming.

All I've said to start this little roe is that the unemployment program works, they got money and will get money without raising inflation, You are the one that insists that my state has the same rules as your state, they don't so get over it already. If it takes employers paying a little more to keep folks out of bread lines and Hoovervilles, I'm gonna call that a win regardless of how we get there.

Meanwhile yes WA does have an employer solvency tax, the current rate is 00000%, so maybe your governor should talk to our governor about not dicking over employers?
https://esd.wa.gov/employer-taxes/rates

 

[northmanlogging]

“Shovel-ready” is such a ******** term. Even if a project goes design-build like the ORB or the current 265/71 overhaul we have here it still takes time for the minimal planning on those jobs, to acquire ROW, easement, bid the work, award the work, submit items to engineers for approval, procure materials, organize labor and equipment.

Then a job is shovel ready. Unless it’s replacing a bridge deck. Then it’s Bid-Well ready.

Solvency tax is a surcharge tax meant to aid in re-employment. I’ve paid it for a long time across a few states. It’s just part of doing business, I try damn hard to keep my guys busy all year, but if I have to lay them off and it keeps them able to keep UI so be it. Taxes are what they are.

Shovel read is a dumb term... Though the program is still creating jobs, even with a dumb name.

 

[northmanlogging]

Well you can drive for TriMet at $15/hour to start and up to $31/hour top pay in three years. Trick is, you gotta be able to put up with a ton of shxt. They are having a hard time getting drivers at that rate that don't quit, wash out, can't pass a drug test, or get in wrecks. I've been doing it for 30 years, and it ain't getting easier.

Gettin real close to the heart of the matter there... its always been hard to find good employees, more so if they can't be on drugs, have a good ticker, not be a lousy driver, and to top all that off, show up on time and not **** off all day... Hence... a shortage of trucks and trucking.

 

[northmanlogging]

oh the ama thing, I remember now, you're still convinced its not a union, or at the very least a trade guild? Which IS a union? An association of professionals that arbitrarily sets rules of employment, and methods of work to be done, and who is allowed to do said work and who for, as well as rates of pay? is that not the definition of a trade union? minus the collective bargaining stuff, cause like its their way or no way now, they control the purse strings as it were, so I guess they've gone beyond union status to what? Organized Crime?

 

[Jhenderson]

1st the AMA DOESN'T SET PAY! Neither does it make rules for whom anyone can work. Quit lying to bolster your pitiful argument. .
2 nd, I said last quarter of 2020 for the solvency tax. Pay attention. Next did you look at projections for that tax. It’s projected to be reinstated by YOUR State employment division.
Each state may have its own rules but I was quoting YOUR STATE RULES. If your going to look at employment regs, look at all of them . Or does that mean you’d need to admit how wrong you are. Reading the drivel and misguided assumptions you post it’s no wonder most folks think people in our business eat dirt and bugger raccoons.

 

[Jhenderson]

“Shovel-ready” is such a ******** term. Even if a project goes design-build like the ORB or the current 265/71 overhaul we have here it still takes time for the minimal planning on those jobs, to acquire ROW, easement, bid the work, award the work, submit items to engineers for approval, procure materials, organize labor and equipment.

Then a job is shovel ready. Unless it’s replacing a bridge deck. Then it’s Bid-Well ready.

Solvency tax is a surcharge tax meant to aid in re-employment. I’ve paid it for a long time across a few states. It’s just part of doing business, I try damn hard to keep my guys busy all year, but if I have to lay them off and it keeps them able to keep UI so be it. Taxes are what they are.

To aid re- employment? I thought that was the primary goal of the labor division of each state? Unfortunately your mistaken about the solvency tax. It’s geared towards additional revenue for unemployment benefits that won’t be covered due to the employers business going under. The % varies with the number of business closures . Every employer pays for those who throw in the towel and puts people on unemployment.

 

[northmanlogging]

1st the AMA DOESN'T SET PAY! Neither does it make rules for whom anyone can work. Quit lying to bolster your pitiful argument. .
2 nd, I said last quarter of 2020 for the solvency tax. Pay attention. Next did you look at projections for that tax. It’s projected to be reinstated by YOUR State employment division.
Each state may have its own rules but I was quoting YOUR STATE RULES. If your going to look at employment regs, look at all of them . Or does that mean you’d need to admit how wrong you are. Reading the drivel and misguided assumptions you post it’s no wonder most folks think people in our business eat dirt and bugger raccoons.

Read the link jack ass. Laters.

 

[Jhenderson]

Read the link jack ass. Laters.

I did. Did you? “ For all other years the fund will be assessed and solvency surcharge will be adjusted when the fund has less than 7 months benefits as of Sept 30. It’s not in effect as of now but its reestablishment is only a bad assessment away. As I said and you ignored as of the 4 quarter of 2020 your state was charging it.