Firewood Bid Estimation

[FLRA_Dave]

Are you selling firewood or is it for personal use? They dint leave much for you. But I guess you have to take what's available.

I gather wood for myself first, then sell the excess. I don't make much, but I really enjoy doing it. There are some larger pieces... up to 3ft diameter or so and a few feet long. I bet there is at least 30 cord laying on the ground. I just started this a couple weeks ago.

 

[GeeVee]

Run. I'm just some Floridiot that lives on the beach, but I can't add up 300 plus cord from that kill sheet. Unrealistic Owner, big commitment, far too much at stake.

Here is another argument for not doing this deal, turning it down politely, that hasn;t been mentioned yet. ( I SOOOOO feel like I'm contributing to this thread.).

Why lock yourself into a (really) long term commitment with this one deal, (which is way beyond your capabilities if it is 300+) and have to turn down easier, more productive projects in the meantime?. I mean, Dang, you estimate 6 cord per month, even if you could sustain that, divided into 300+ you're talking 4 plus years. You'll get burned for theft, you got two months he'll be hunting, you'll lose XX amount to rot, lose some more to theft, he'll renege on the deal or his heirs will at any time over the next four years..... Can you honestly say that what you thought you'd be doing now is actually what you planned on doing, four or five years ago?

Aint doin it. Makes ZERO sense, and no dollars.

Did I fail to mention the math aint adding up? His idea of firewood might be the same as some CL ads we see, about the size of a hard prick? Its firewood..... I can see now how he arrived at 300+. Or he is as gullible as he hopes someone else is, and took his "timber manager" blowing cold breeze up his skirt as reality.

"How much can I make Mr. Manager Expert guy?"

"Really?, you're my guy, make some calls and lets get it on the ground, The big check will be good, but I want to squeeze every last penny out of it too, so I'll help by lining up the cleaners"

Run, politely, but run.

Actually, walking is recommended, contentment with making a good decision should be savored.

 

[colson04]

"I just spoke to my timber manager and we were negotiating something with an additional 4 or 5 white oaks. THEY ARE HUGE... I MEAN MONSTROUS. I guess only one of them was suitable for timber, so they are just going to fall the others and leave them for me to offer as firewood, or someone may even be able to sell them for timber to a mill. These trees alone (just 4 or 5 of them) could probably produce 50 cords of wood. THEY ARE SICK HUGE!"
.

So it really sounds like this guy is using cord when what he is talking about is face cord.

My dad and grandpa do this all the time. My grandpa recently told me he burns 21 cord a year in his CB 6048 only heating his modern house and DHW. After a quick discussion, what I realized he meant was a face cord (1/3 of cord or a 'rick' of wood). My dad does it to, especially when referencing a pickup load of firewood: "looks like a good 2 cord on that truck" when it's just a regular 8 ft box slightly heaped at best.

Might want to discuss exactly what he means when he says 'cord'. Does he really mean 128 cu. ft. or 1/3 of that?

 

[chucker]

! what really smells is the 78,000 bf of sawed lumber !! a good sawyer will get around 500/550 bf to a single cord of straight bolts sawing dimensional lumber! if a good sawyer is sawing timbers or ties, then a good sawyer can gain a good half(700/750) more in bf to a single cord of straight bolts!! with this being said and good ole sawyer math the board feet just don't jive with 300 cords! 78,000 would be in the neighbor hood of 150 cord to 200 cord ! if it's milled by a good sawyer and an average of common sense??? of course size also matters is what the wife tells me? lol

 

[slowp]

The way to do this, if you want it, is to walk through and either take measurements/plots/samples or eyeball it. Come up with your estimate. If the owner insists on going by their estimate, and you think it is overblown, then you adjust your bid downward, so you are still bidding for 300 cords but at a reduced price so you'll make a profit on what is really there.

That's how the big people bid on standing timber that is paid for using the timber cruise results.

 

[FLRA_Dave]

Ok, a little bit of clarification on measurements:

"yea...we are on the same page, but when I was counting cords on those trees I was talking face cords. so more like 15 or so cords per tree. I’m not the greatest judge as I have never really done firewood...but these few trees are ENORMOUS!"

This guy is confusing me. Sounds like 15 FC/tree is what he meant to say. I could see that on some really large trees for the entire tree. Even with that it's still 25 cord ((15 FC * 5 trees)/3 FC per cord) with his math on 5 trees.

 

[slowp]

See my post above. Volume varies and a smart bidder makes it work out, or walks away.

 

[FLRA_Dave]

See my post above. Volume varies and a smart bidder makes it work out, or walks away.

I did. Just wanted to get an answer back on whether on not he was talking cords or face cords is all.

 

[reaperman]

I know nothing about logging. I know 200 wooded acres, its my backyard, its huge. I do operate heavy equipment and over the years we have done countless jobs involving clearing land. One that sticks out was the new construction of a golf course, approx. 200 acres, half wooded. A logging crew came in and dropped everything within defined areas to make fairways. Took the good saw logs and left everything else. Obviously, we had large enough equipment to move all of the left over tops and unwanted logs. On a side note, what a crying shame it was to see all of that "left over" wood just get heaped onto piles and burnt. Back to reality, the biggest obstacle to contend with was STUMPS. Yea we popped them out with machines, sometimes they couldn't keep up with clearing crew. Then it was like being in a big pinball machine. Now to my point, trying to maneuver through a big woods full of 600 stumps and surrounding live trees could be a real challenge to dragging efforts. I can see tops getting snagged on stumps, trees, etc and breaking off pieces along the way. And just how "clean" does the landowner want his woodlot when the job is finished? Does he want it to look like a park with all of the "little stuff" cleaned up as well? Or is he realistic and willing to accept the fact that your just pulling tops out and not cleaning up anything other than what your tractor can drag? If he's wants it to look like a park then he better be willing to shell out thousands to make it look that way.

 

[old_soul]

Ok, a little bit of clarification on measurements:

"yea...we are on the same page, but when I was counting cords on those trees I was talking face cords. so more like 15 or so cords per tree. I’m not the greatest judge as I have never really done firewood...but these few trees are ENORMOUS!"

This guy is confusing me. Sounds like 15 FC/tree is what he meant to say. I could see that on some really large trees for the entire tree. Even with that it's still 25 cord ((15 FC * 5 trees)/3 FC per cord) with his math on 5 trees.

15 cords per tree? I call bs on that from the start. true cords? is he growing giant redwoods or something up there?

be careful doing business with liars, or fools, either way things can go south in a hurry.....

 

[FLRA_Dave]

I walked a little of the lot with my two year old on my shoulders yesterday - tiring. Got a good idea of the lands features. A fair amount of trails were made, but a lot of the tops are off the trail, and they used their 540b to just run over or knock down anything in their way. I don't think my little tractor is going to be able to follow its tracks. I was fortunate to run into the two guys doing the logging as they were pulling the last hitch out. We talked about what it was like in there and what I had for equipment. Sounded like I was under equipped (shocker right?). Also, they said they pulled out about 120k bdft.
I have got to be the worst estimator out there... I don't think I'm ever closer to right. And since he doesn't want me to pay him per cord as it is pulled I told the guy I was going to have to pass. I'm sure I'll run into more opportunities.
On a side note I placed an order for a Wallenstein FX65 logging winch (with 3 chokers and snatch block) and getting the demo ($300 off) LX5100 3pt log grapple they had on the lot. These will serve me well I think where I am working now.
Attached are pictures from my walk in the woods on Saturday.

 

[zogger]

Oh well, worth a look. That's sure a mess to work in.

 

[philoshop]

Dave, that looks worse than the one in Geneva and it's not even mud season yet!
Wise move to pass it up IME. Others will come along.
Be well.

Just a thought, but check back with the owner later in the summer. Might be a better bargaining position for you if you need or want the work and he hasn't found anyone else. Tops will last a good while sitting in the woods.

 

[cantoo]

Looks like the bush I'm going to be doing next. This one hasn't been logged in 20 years though so most of the trails are gone. I'm going to be cleaning up any standing dead or fallen stuff and getting some wider trails in to get ready for a selective cut in a couple of years. I'm planning to trim the branches off in place and only haul them to a landing in the bush and stack them, I think I'll only haul them home when it's frozen.

 

[jwade]

I walked a little of the lot with my two year old on my shoulders yesterday - tiring. Got a good idea of the lands features. A fair amount of trails were made, but a lot of the tops are off the trail, and they used their 540b to just run over or knock down anything in their way. I don't think my little tractor is going to be able to follow its tracks. I was fortunate to run into the two guys doing the logging as they were pulling the last hitch out. We talked about what it was like in there and what I had for equipment. Sounded like I was under equipped (shocker right?). Also, they said they pulled out about 120k bdft.
I have got to be the worst estimator out there... I don't think I'm ever closer to right. And since he doesn't want me to pay him per cord as it is pulled I told the guy I was going to have to pass. I'm sure I'll run into more opportunities.
On a side note I placed an order for a Wallenstein FX65 logging winch (with 3 chokers and snatch block) and getting the demo ($300 off) LX5100 3pt log grapple they had on the lot. These will serve me well I think where I am working now.
Attached are pictures from my walk in the woods on Saturday.View attachment 338292
View attachment 338294
View attachment 338295

 

[jwade]

just my opinion but i think you made the right decision. it should be pretty easy to find a smaller plot where you equipment will better fit the situation

 

[cantoo]

I just went back to the bush on my 4 wheeler, there ain't gonna be any cutting back there for quite awhile. Snow is 3' deep in the bush, trail back has some 6' drifts still. Snow is frozen enough to stay on top in some spots but anywhere near the bush it is soft and it took 800 ccs to get back to the frozen stuff. I was hoping I could play for a bit but I really don't have time right now anyway. Getting closer to being done the renovations on my sons house, paybacks are gonna be tough on him. Going to have to cut wood in the heat of summer this year.

 

[FLRA_Dave]

Just a thought, but check back with the owner later in the summer. Might be a better bargaining position for you if you need or want the work and he hasn't found anyone else. Tops will last a good while sitting in the woods.

I was thinking about that. The logging crew also does firewood, but they lived 1.5 hours away and it was too far for them to transport (they just cut where the mill tells them to). They said they bet there will be a lot off people turning it down. Idk.

 

[FLRA_Dave]

just my opinion but i think you made the right decision. it should be pretty easy to find a smaller plot where you equipment will better fit the situation

Today a healthy 70 year old guy from down the road stopped by and asked me if I would be willing to sell him some of my firewood. He made some calls to some other local outfits, but none have returned his calls, so that led him to stop by. He liked the smaller split sizes that I make as he has to re split most of the wood he has delivered (9 cord he said). Anyhow, charged him $20 for a load in his Dakota (about 1/6 cord). We got to talking and he tells me he has 13 acres, but not the equipment or physical shape to get much of it out at a time. It's on a steep hill. I immediately thought about the winch I just ordered. So he welcomed me to stop by any time to see if I wanted to work out of his lot. He thought about logging some of it, but doesn't want the land tore up from a skidder.... maybe before he moved he said. Funny how things work out. And it's only 2 miles down the road.

 

[cantoo]

I would at least take some pictures of the bush the way it is. Mud roads and small tree damage. It would be a good selling point for having you in there and do minimal impact logging vrs big equipment logging. Don't take pictures of the equipment or mention names though, nobody likes that.